INTRODUCTION
The relations between India and Pakistan are always teetering on the edge of a cliff and any diplomatic progress done between the representatives and/or leaders of the two nations is somehow instantly opposed by the usual logjams of identity politics, sectarianism and religious divide that sternly and strongly divides the two nations and its peoples. The origin of this divide can be traced back towards the end of the independence movement when Lord Mountbatten, the last Governor-General of India, caved in to the demands of Mohammed Ali Jinnah and the wider Muslim League for the creation of a new state which would be having a greater demographic of people aligning with Islam than Hinduism.
This was the nascent creation of a new State, one which would encompass all that Jinnah stood for. When the Indian Independence Act was passed, it was decided that a cartographer from Britain would be asked to come to India to draw a line on the map which would decide the geographical and territorial limits of the two nations, India and Pakistan. Sir Cyril Radcliffe was chosen to be the cartographer and he had neither stepped foot on the land before nor studied about the histories and cultural aspects of the people of India. A crude line was drawn which proved to be disastrous as millions faced exodus, resulting in some of the worst disasters and riots mankind has stood witness to. As a consequence, several died and many more were permanently scarred, either physically or mentally. Since then, the ties between the two nations have never bettered and are always on shaky grounds primarily to deal with the impending issue of Kashmir.
In this article, Team YLCC throws light on the scenario of India-Pakistan relations in 2022 and understanding the way forward. Read on!
BRIEF HISTORICAL OVERVIEW OF THE RELATIONS BETWEEN 1947 AND 2021
Over the past seven and a half decades, the relation between the two countries has been one of hostility and ominous fear of attacks and skirmishes mixed with moments of peace and peaceful resolutions to increase trade and relations and decrease cross-border firing. It has become increasingly difficult for the two countries to find a common ground whereby bilateral trade and diplomatic relationship can be fostered because of internal polarisation in both the countries mired with the rise of extreme nationalism and overt religious fanaticism coupled with India’s continued strategic alliance with the United States and Pakistan’s novel relation with China and Russia.[1]
The ties between the nations, in the recent years, had reached its zenith between 2004 and 2008 when there were several rounds of diplomatic, political and leadership rounds of conversations between the top ranking officials and politicians of both the countries. This had much to do with the rekindling brought forth in the Atal Bihari Vajpayee administration only for the conventions and meetings to be brought to a stern and swift conclusion in the wake of the November, 2008 Mumbai attacks.
In 2015, a Comprehensive Dialogue was to be formed which had a basket of 10 strategic issues that would be dealt with by the leaders of the two nations, including the most seismic one- Kashmir. Narendra Modi and Nawaz Sharif met in a historical setting at Lahore where the two leaders had expansive conversations on the overall health of the Indo-Pak relationship treating Kashmir to be an important element and not as an outlier.[2]
THE ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONS IN 2022
India has seen a rise in its diplomatic and strategic trade relations with the world and has surpassed expectations to be a truly developing nation with the potential to become the third richest country in less than half a century. Amongst its global aspirations which are met via multinational and geo-political alliances, India has had a stringent belief in the close connect and relation with its many neighbours which is often dubbed as “Neighbour First” policy. It is becoming more relevant and visible than ever before that the ties between the two nations are becoming bearable if not overtly better. When the terrible floods engulfed Pakistan and its populace, there was a serious effort done by Delhi to send reinforcements to Islamabad or jettison it on the heavily affected regions but the standard malfeasant logjams hindered its completion.
A factual analysis of the condition of the bilateral trade between the two nations deserves to be done on the merits of the internal polarisation and politics in the two countries. In mid-May, 2022, after the incumbent administration had changed hands and Shehbaz Sharif became the new Prime Minister of Pakistan, there was a proposal made by his party to re-instate a position in the High Command at Delhi which had been left vacant for a long time by appointing Qamar Zaman as the trade minister. This resulted in serious opposition by the parties and a gruesome media trial where the proportion by the detractors was fixated upon the sole reason of this being a way in which the country was kowtowing to India.[3]
However, the year of 2022 has not been one of complete doom and gloom, the ceasefire which was agreed upon by the two militaries has been prevalent throughout the previous year and this one, too. This comes on the heels of the complete destruction of any diplomatic relations after the 2019 attack and the subsequent air strikes. The military offensive has been minimised and while many political commentators and experts have demanded to bury the hatchet considering the timing and efficiency of this ceasefire, it still remains a distant dream to have a constructive conference between the high command of the two nations without first addressing and completely understanding the modalities and consequences of the Kashmir Issue.[4]
CONCLUSION
The year 2022 has tested the strength and prowess of all nations around the globe as countries are being led out of the post-pandemic economic, political, social, cultural, financial, and geographical issues by the leaders who had never thought that their administrations would be tested in this gruesome and cumbersome manner. Pakistan has witnessed rampant poverty and impoverishment, the value of the currency declining and foreign exports dwindling, the persistent threat of being held accountable for financing terrorist activities by the international political organisations and the internal turmoil at its zenith. India has had a year marked by its own social and cultural issues and a looming general election around the corner which would make all parties involved a little inward-looking to either regain or reclaim the most powerful seat.
While it remains a distant diplomatic feat, the relations between the two countries can show progress in the coming years whereby bilateral trade, and geo-political stability coupled with militaristic ceasefire aids the two nations’ global aspirations and rekindles the relation as it was once seen in the early years of this century. It is an oft-quoted saying that no two nations are ever friends in the global sphere, they are merely allies for personal and democratic gains. While Pakistan can certainly benefit from the import of grains, sugar and pulses from India, the latter can feel safer knowing the ceasefire is maintained and that there would not be a situation like Russia and Ukraine find themselves in wherein one is enforcing its cultural and social mores on the other.
Not too dissimilar like Delhi having expansive trade and bilateral relations with Russia and China keeping aside the former’s invasion and the latter’s authoritarianism, it would be in the spirits of the diplomatic tightrope that India has treaded on to maintain relations with both the erstwhile powers and the novel key players, including Pakistan.
[1] Jalil Abbas Jilani, India and Pakistan at 75: Prospects for the Future, United States Institute of Peace, https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/08/india-and-pakistan-75-prospects-future
[2] Bashir Ali Abbas, India-Pakistan Dialogue: Past Trends and Future Prospects, The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2022/10/india-pakistan-dialogue-past-trends-and-future-prospects/
[3] Namita Barthwal, A Way Forward for India-Pakistan Relations: Time to Reinforce Constructive Diplomacy, Claws, https://www.claws.in/a-way-forward-for-india-pakistan-relations-time-to-reinforce-constructive-diplomacy/
[4] Rishap Vats, India-Pakistan Relations: Is The Chasm Widening, Institute for Security and Development Policy, https://www.isdp.eu/india-pak-relations-is-the-chasm-widening/
YLCC would like to thank its Content Team for their valuable insights in this article.
