INTRODUCTION
On February 24th, 2022, Russia initiated a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the largest mobilisation of military forces that Europe had seen since 1945. Building up to the day, the situation felt like a time from the erstwhile Cold War era where Vladimir Putin’s forces were seen being mobilised at the shared border between the two countries. The strategic placing of tanks, missiles, and other military equipment was to do as much with geographical supremacy as it was to do with global terror.
In this article, Team YLCC attempts to decrypt the Russia-Ukraine crisis and its implications in India. Read on!
WHY DID RUSSIA INVADE UKRAINE?
Vladimir Putin refuses to call this invasion a war, instead he describes it as a “special military operation” to liberate the Ukrainian states and cities and de-militarise and de-Nazify them.[1] However, the reality is much more political and territorial. The erstwhile Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (more colloquially known as USSR) broke up into several different countries in the early years of the 1990s. One of the many newly formed countries was Ukraine. Over the years, these countries became democratic republics and posed a threat to the Russian socialistic regime. Russia considers Ukraine to be a cultural and genetical product of themselves and wish to reserve the disjointing done by Mikhail Gorbachev on grounds of familial familiarity.
Ukraine was also lured into joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) which is a military alliance between most of the Western nations and has some Eastern nations as observers. This created another issue for Putin and Russia as having a country sharing a huge chunk of its border being a member of the USA-centric NATO would not be ideal.
Therefore, in either a sense of zeal or the need to make an impact on the world, Vladimir Putin decided to invade Ukraine and set forth the biggest militaristic issue since World War II.
WHAT HAS HAPPENED OVER THE MONTHS AND WHAT IS THE STATUS OF THE INVASION NOW?
Russia had already annexed Crimea and the Donbas regions in 2014 which gave them an unhindered access of the Black Sea. Over the first few weeks of the invasion, Ukrainian forces joined by civilians who took up arms managed a stalwart resistance to the Russian forces. There were heavy casualties and it was only until late August that Russia began to gain a foothold in the dispute. An unfathomably sizeable set of artilleries and missiles were deployed on the major cities across Ukraine capturing thousands of acres in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions with profound damage to buildings, structures, monuments, et al in other metropolitan cities like Kiev.
Owing to the multitude of war zones and a complete destruction of any communication channel between the leaders of the two nations, any hint of a peaceable resolution of the dispute seemed too bleak to happen. The mounting pressure from the Western nations to either resolve the matter amicably or allow them to mediate was also disregarded by the Russian high command.
WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE WAR IN INDIA?
After the end of the Second World War and the subsequent independence of India, the world was split into two poles- this bipolarity was headed by The United States of America as the capitalist bloc and The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics as the communist bloc. This ensued a Cold War between the two nations and their belligerents. India had always been a neutral, especially after the creation of the Non-Alignment Movement by Jawaharlal Nehru. However, the proximity to USSR and the similarity in ideologies and philosophies between the Premieres of USSR and the Congress Party ensured that the Indo-Russian relations were tenable, at least.
Throughout the Cold War, the relations between India and Russia rested on these pillars: 1) Soviet arms sales to India; 2) Shared public-sector-heavy economic philosophy and extensive Soviet aid and 3) The Soviet-Indian relations as against the American-Pakistani-Chinese one.[2]
India’s trade relations with Russia have not only gone back decades ago but have also remained robust over the ten months of the War. Adding to this, from April to August, 2022, India and Russia’s trade soared up to the highest valuation ever, owing to the inflationary prices of oil and fertilisers, standing at $17 million. Of this, $16 million dollars’ worth of oil, fertilisers, and other goods have been imported and only a meagre $1 million dollar worth of good exported leaving a sizeable chunk as trade deficit.[3] This rather dismal state of the overall trade deficit between the two nations, in favour of Russia, has made India mindful and cautious of its obligations to Russia and the wider world.
India is a member of several multi-national alliances with differing ideologies, aims, and goals. The position of India in the global markets and as a provider of aplenty students and employees around the world, it has become a key pleaser in global affairs and international relations. The diplomats and policymakers at New Delhi are also keenly aware of the expectations and obligations levied on them. The invasion of Ukraine caused several Western nations to not only condemn the encroachment and deployment of troops and missiles but also cast-off Russia from almost all the financial, economic, societal, political, and cultural spheres. The Western nations have been weary of the ideological and political similarities between Russia and China and since India finds itself in the middle of the two, both diplomatically and territorially, it was expected from India to condemn the attacks vociferously.
Many nations, especially Washington, were disappointed to see India’s lukewarm criticism. The most immediate effect of this War would be for India and Indian high command to a balance the thin line of Russia on the one hand and the rest of the world on the other, with great caution. The soaring prices of oil and fertilisers would only increase as India remains one of the very few markets still trading with Russia. Another sphere of impact would fall upon the shoulders of all countries- developed and developing- to create a new world order, one which is bereft of any violence or usurpation like the current invasion of Ukraine, among other such distressing instances.
CONCLUSION
Any real end to this invasion seems bleak, at the moment, as bombs and missiles are still being deployed on towns and cities across Ukraine. The real question, many experts believe, would be to see how long the West would survive without gas supplies from Russia. The Winter of Discontentment might get a little too cumbersome for the politicians and leaders to handle.[4]
The impact to the rest of the world, especially India, could keep getting worse until the two countries find a peaceable means to resolve the ongoing dispute. All the causes, circumstances and the effects and consequences of the War should make all the countries realise the importance of autonomy, the right to self-determination, and the need to have democratic systemic changes without a trace of malfeasance and/or misfeasance in the doings of the leaders of the countries.
YLCC would like to thank Pearl Narang for her valuable insights in this article.
[1] Paul Kirby, Why Did Russia Invade Ukraine and Has Putin’s War Failed?, BBC, (Nov. 28th, 2022, 9:04AM)
[2] Rajan Menon & Eugene Rumer, Russia and India: A New Chapter; Carnegie, (Nov. 28th, 2022, 9:36AM)
[3] Harikrishnan Sharma, India-Russia trade soars to record high as imports of oil and fertiliser drive surge, The Indian Express, (Nov. 28th, 2022, 12:07PM)
[4] Jen Kirby & Jonathan Guyer, Russia’s War in Ukraine, Explained, The Vox, (Nov. 28th, 2022, 12:23 PM)
